THE ACID TEST

Iraq is now undergoing the acid test. The central government, represented by Mr. al Maliki, is taking on the leading opposition Imam, Muqtada al Sadr, in what one reporter finally called the “entirely lawless” region that includes Basra (NPR, Morning Edition 3/20/08).

If we were getting regular reports that exposed what goes on around Iraq outside the Green Zone, perhaps the American people would have demanded withdrawal long ago, but at this point the clash between al Sadr and al Maliki is the tip of the iceberg that all can see. It is also the crucial flash point that could tell the tale of Iraq for years to come.

Word yesterday was that a lot of Iraqi government soldiers were doffing their uniforms and joining the ranks of the Mahdi army of al Sadr. This morning, however, there may be some indications that the government forces are gaining the upper hand. The BBC aired a live report in which gunfire was heard close at hand as the Mahdi army fought to hold its position in an elementary school. A citizen living near the school was interviewed and said that the fighting was worse than ever. The citizen supported the government, but expressed the wish that the British were still there and would take on the Mahdi army and “get rid of them once and for all”.

It is easy to identify with that wish, but UK forces are providing only air support. American troops also have yet to join in the fray. The British officer interviewed reported that al Maliki has extended the arms turnover until April 8, and that some Sheiks were turning in arms and hostile militiamen.

Iraqi troop reinforcements from across the country are being called into the Basra area, and at this point it looks as if the head-to-head showdown is going to be settled entirely by Iraqis. If the government troops begin to lose the battle, I expect the American troops will be called in to salvage the situation, but the hope is that the central Iraqi government will prevail and establish itself firmly as the unifying force.

Regardless of the outcome of this big fight, though, Iraq is not likely to become a safe and operational nation any time soon. I do not believe that terrorism and insurgency can be entirely quelled by force of arms. If the central government does prevail, the next test will be the approach they take to binding the wounds both sides have inflicted on the national psyche. If the Mahdi army prevails, the central government will be seen as useless, and al Sadr will be catapulted to power.

In that circumstance he would have to take on a more public persona as a national leader. Undoubtedly he would try to unify the nation, too, but more likely on the lines of the Khomeini revolution in Iran through a fundamentalist approach to governance than along the secular lines the present government supposedly represents.

In any case, religious division remains a volatile factor in the evolution of post-Saddam Iran, and no quick solutions to internal strife loom on the near horizon.


Be the change you wish to see in the world. -- M. K. Gandhi

Individually we have little voice. Collectively we cannot be ignored.
But in silence we surrender our power. Yours in Peace -- BR

The reason for going was to keep the crude flowing and raise a false flag abroad. – from a poem by Jack Evans titled 3500 Souls - http://www.myspace.com/paralegal_eagle